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July 1, 2008

Cynicism about politicians is healthy...up to a point

The steady flow of stories about MPs, MEPs and Peers abusing expenses are doing huge damage to their credibility, standing and support among the general public. This, in turn, damages and undermines the entire political system.
I know many senior people in business who scornfully dismiss the idea of engaging with politicians on the grounds that "they are all in it for what they can get out of it". Like most sweeping generalisations this does not tell the whole truth and it is a dangerous assumption to make for anyone with an interest in influencing how our laws are made. Every business leader should have an interest in this area as it shapes - or distorts depending on your point or view - the markets in which business operates.
Politicians, of course, deserve alot of the criticism that is currently coming their way. It seems to me desperately naive of them not to think that the last decade of demanding ever more transparency across the rest of society wouldn't eventually see the spotlight of scrutiny turned on them. It wouldn't have taken much to get the system of parliamentary allowances cleaned up so that it was capable of being judged favourably against today's standards.
All that said, it is important that we recognise that the majority of MPs are not there to make their fortunes: in my experience they genuinely want to serve the country, however pompous that aspiration might sound in today's cynincal world. This means that people must look beyond today's headlines and continue to engage with the democratic and political processes. This is never easy at the best of times because finding out where to start can be difficult. This remains one of the over-riding reasons why we – by which I mean Incisive Media – continues to work with the All Party Parliamentary Group on Insurance & Financial Services to provide that starting point. They genuinely want to hear from you and many people who meet the senior members for the first time will tell you how taken aback they are by their knowledge of the financial services sector: proof alone that some of that cynicism is miss-placed.

May 9, 2008

Political landscape changes but Labour are still in power

For the first time in a decade there is a realistic prospect of a change of government at the next General Election, now certain to be in the first half of 2010. Regardless of one's personal political persuasion, this has to be good for the country as governments without a serious opposition tend to become arrogant and detached. This is almost always the inevitable fate of governments and Prime Ministers who win three elections in a row: it has happened to Tony Blair and Labour, just as it happened to Margaret Thatcher and the Tories 20 years earlier. Blair went according to his own timetable while Thatcher had to be forced out. The aftermath was remarkably similar, however: Chancellor succeeds to premiership, party suffers divisions and gets caned in the local elections. Then what?
The City, of course, is excited by the prospect of a Conservative government and suddenly Conservative spokesmen are in demand and speaking to large and engaged audiences in the financial services sector. They don't appear to have much of substance to say but they are being listened to and taken seriously. But are you really listening to the next cabinet or will we still have a Labour government well into the next decade?
John Major was in the same position as Gordon Brown in 1990 and 1991 but by the middle of 1992 he was able to fashion a General Election victory in the last ten days of a campaign that had previously looked to have only one winner, and it wasn't the Tories. This proves nothing beyond the huge uncertainty and unpredictability of politics but it should serve as a cautionary reminder to City firms, financial institutions and their lobbyists not to get too excited about the prospect of having their 'friends' in government and certainly not to the extent of forgetting to engage with the current ministers. Labour will be running the country for another two years which is a very, very long time in politics.

January 3, 2008

Heads down for long haul

There now seems very little chance of a General Election taking place in 2008 such has been the huge shift in the political landscape over the last few months.
Gordon Brown's premiership is, at the very least, in dangerous waters even if it hasn't quite hit the rocks yet. Crisis after crisis has battered him since taking over from Tony Blair, leaving the public with the feeling that this is a government lacking the competence to manage the country. That gnaws away at public support and, unless Mr Brown can counter that soon, his government could be doomed.
The parallels with when Labour last changed leader while in government are becoming more numerous by the day. Thirty years ago, Harold Wilson stood down and was succeeded by Jim Callaghan. The Tories had a new leader in Margaret Thatcher, slowly finding her feet after succeeding the defeated Ted Heath. As for the Liberals, they were forced to replace their leader, Jeremy Thorpe when he became embroilled in allegations of bribery, homosexuality and attempted murder. He was succeeded by David Steel who, like the recently elected Nick Clegg came from the right of his party.
Three new leaders, economic crisis, government not in control of events, delayed General Election – the parallels are there. When the election did eventually come in 1979 Labour was swept from power for 18 long years. One significant difference is that in 1977-79 Labour had to hang on in Parliament by its fingertips, eventually relying on a pact with the Liberals to secure majorities in key votes. This time. it has the cushion of a comfortable majority so shouldn't be forced to the country because it loses a vote of confidence in Parliament as happened thirty years ago.
Labour may have a mountain to climb to recover over the next 18 months but we should all remember that they are still the government and could still be the government after the next General Election. The financial services sector musn't make the mistake of thinking that change is just around the corner and therefore spend all its time getting close to the Tories: they need to be taken seriously and this is a good time to influence their policy formation but they are not making any decisions. We probably have two budgets and one hell of alot of legislation to go before the election and any prospect of a change in government.

March 12, 2007

Silly games over Lords reform

The vote by the House of Commons for a 100% elected House of Lords came as a complete surprise to most commentators as well as the majority of the cabinet. Tony Blair showed just how far out of touch he is with the prevailing mood by voting for the 50% appointed/50% elected House of Lords – the option that was defeated by the biggest majority.
I can't see the 100% elected option getting much further, however. A significant number of MPs who voted for it actually don't support radical reform of the Lords. They voted for this option because they think that it has little chance of progressing, playing just the sort of political games that most of the public don't understand and certainly don't like. There was, however, a real majority for the option of having an 80% elected House of Lords and this would seem to be where we are heading.
There are still big issues to be addressed, not least getting the ermine clad turkeys to vote for Christmas. Also high up the agenda must be the size of the reformed House and its role: these already seem to be getting lost in a largely irrelevant debate about what is should be called. Just as with the House of Commons (see below), we should first look at the functions of the new upper house and then properly analyse how many people are needed to carry out those functions effectively.
As to the key question: should there be any appointed members? I think that 20% is about right so long as it is kept away from the Prime Minister of the day. We need to create a system where people who would never stand for election but who can make a major contribution to the legislative process can be appointed for a fixed term.

February 6, 2007

Do we need more MPs?

I ask this question becasue the full extent of the proposed changes to constituency boundaries for the next General Election has just been analysed. Among the many consequencies – including the loss of John Greenway's Ryedale seat – is that the number of MPs will increase from 646 to 650. Can this be justified? I believe the answer is no.
Just look at the trends.
After the post-war abolition of the university seats the House of Commons had 625 MPs: this steadily increased over the next 50 years until it reached 659 in 1997 and 2001. Amazingly, the first tranche of post-devolution changes actually reduced the number of MPs elected at the last General Election to 646 but this was too good to last so the trend is back on an upward curve.
There are still huge anomalies which the Boundary Commission has failed to address this time round. For instance, why does the average English constituency have 69,934 electors while the average Welsh constitutency only have 55,640? And they have their own Assembly. I would use this as a lever to reduce the number of Welsh MPs but it could, of course, just as easily be used as an argument for increasing the number of English MPs.
The real shortcoming of this whole boundary review exercise is that it appears no-one has ever sat down and asked the obvious question: how many MPs do we need to create an efficient, modern political assembly that is effective in holding the government of the day to account? I don't know the answer to that question but it is likely to be nearer to 300 than 700. Could you imagine the huge rows if the number of seats was slashed by half?

December 13, 2006

Ed Balls impresses

Every time the (relatively) new Economic Secretary to the Treasury Ed Balls speaks to an industry event he impresses. His latest platform was yesterday's Institute of Insurance Brokers annual Parliamentary Reception.
He spoke with authority on a range of issues that are of concern to insurers and brokers, including the regulation of travel agents, the shortcomings of non-advised sales and the role of the Financial Services Authority. It is, of course, easy to sound knowlegeable when a team of officials write your speech – but he didn't have a script or any notes. He knew what he was talking about and spoke in terms that showed he had an instinctive appreciation of the role the insurance industry plays in modern society and economic life.
Guests at the reception were left struggling to remember the last time the insurance industry had a minister responsible for it who seemed to have such a genuine interest in them and a real sympathy for some of their concerns. One or two with longer memories and involvement with our political masters suggested that you had to go right back to the mid-1990s and the last Conservative government when the insurance industry was still looked after by the Department of Trade and Industry and Jonathan Evans was the minister in charge of the industry. He, of course, exited the Commons in the 1997 Labour landslide but found his way into the European Parliament where he is now an influential figure on many of the economic committees.

November 25, 2008

Parliament moves fast on 'budget' debate

Having criticised Parliament for not devoting enough time to debate the economic and financial crises we find ourselves in, I have to praise it for moving quickly in the wake of yesterday's Pre-Budget report. The Speaker has agreed that there should be a three hour debate tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon but only after intense pressure from the opposition.
It does seem extraordinary that such a major statement on the overwhelmingly dominant issue of the day shouldn't have been automatically followed by an extended debate as, indeed, the Budget itself is. Alistair Darling's speech yesterday was hugely significant in so many ways that it deserves to be debated properly. It marks an end to 30 years of tax cuts, the opening up of a yawning chasm between the two main parties on economic and fiscal policy for the first time since the early 1990s and a massive gamble on short term spending heading off a deep recession. We might as well have closed Parliament down if it couldn't hold a debate on that lot.

March 6, 2009

Brown has lost the regulatory reform battle already - he just can't bring himself to admit it

As hard as he might try, it looks as if Gordon Brown has already lost control of the debate on the future regulation of the world's financial services industries. His pleas to President Obama and the US Congress for a co-ordinated global response sounded very fine but lacked substance and, crucially, lacked credibility. His hopes of pulling off a deal at the G20 Summit next month now look very slim.

Most of the rest of the world is not looking to the UK or the United States for a lead in reforming the way financial markets and the firms that play in them are regulated for the simple reason that they think the Anglo-US approach of the last 25 years has a lot to do with the mess the world's economies are currently in as many leading commentators are starting to point out. Europe, in particular, does not want a UK or US solution and is already busily working at its own. Last week's Larosiere report spells out a new approach that has quickly won approval in the European Commission and among key national governments in mainland Europe. The Larosiere Report?  You haven't heard of it? You can be forgiven because the coverage in the UK of this key report for the European Commission by former International Monetary Fund managing director Jacques de Larosiere has been poorly covered here. Yet, it has set the EU on a course to create three new pan-national regulatory bodies - the European Banking Authority, the European Securities Authority and the European Insurance Authority.

These new regulators will be given wide powers to impose supervisory standards on national regulators, make binding decisions on technical issues (very likely to include powers over product design) and enforce adequate prudential supervision in conjunction with another new body, the European Systemic Risk Council. Certain pan-European organisations will find themselves closely regulated for the first time with credit ratings agencies at the top of the list - they are in for a very nasty shock if these recommendations go through. For the time-being, the EU envisages micro-level regulation of individual firms being left with national regulators but it sets out a course towards far greater control in the future, threatening to bring a range of other market and conduct of business issues under the remit of its new structure.

The report and the Commission make a nod in the direction of the world outside Europe's borders by urging a "deepening of the EU's bilateral financial relations with all its major partners" but here, in the very next line, is the key statement of intent "There is an opportunity for the EU to seize global leadership". This is where the battle lines will be drawn and it is hard to see Gordon Brown's voice being heard above the noise of that battle.

There are some scores to be settled with the UK among many regulators in Europe dating back to the creation of the Single Market in financial services in 1992 when the UK won a protracted argument over the balance between prudential regulation and product regulation, with the EU rules coming down firmly in favour of the former. At the time, many financial products in Germany, France, Italy and Spain were tightly regulated in terms of design and rates. All of that was replaced by a more UK orientated system of prudential supervision and it is that system that many in Europe believe has now failed, no more so that in the UK. Larosiere comes back time and again in his report to the need to regulate at much more detailed level, especially when it comes to hedge funds, over-the -counter derivatives and credit default swaps. It also has things to say on the need for greater risk retention by the issuers of securitised products and calls for common rules for what it rather vaguely refers to as "investment funds".

The UK has given a lukewarm welcome to the Larosiere report but merely praising it as a "good basis for further discussions" as Alistair Darling did this week is hardly going to win friends at the European Commission, especially as he goes on to dismiss the idea of given any new pan-European bodies powers over national regulators. Europe sees it as the agenda for those discussions and we can expect to see France and Germany pressing this at the G20 summit. They are not interested in the sort of wishy-washy talk of global co-operation that the Prime Minister peddled to the US Congress this week: they want firm action with tough new rules and see how to deliver that as the starting point for debate, not merely as an option for discussion.

If the UK financial services sector wants to engage in the real debate over the future of regulation it will be much better advised to look to Brussels rather than to Westminster.


March 18, 2009

Goodwin's pension is obscuring the issue

There is no coherent argument that can be offered for defending Sir Fred Goodwin's pension and it was disappointing to see yesterday's hearings of the Treasury Select Committee largely wasted in pursuing the City minister Lord (Paul) Myners over the Goodwin pension.
We all know what happened. In the eye of the crisis last October when the banking system was being swept towards an abyss, a morally bankrupt RBS board pulled a fast one when they knew the government wouldn't be looking. They thought Goodwin was been sacrificed to satisfy the government as it poured public money into their ailing company and so did everything they could to feather his nest. The decisions they made were deliberate, calculating and cynical. You cannot blame the government - in particular Lord Myners - for not noticing this at the time. Can you imagine the outrage if government ministers had become so distracted by arguing with the RBS board over Goodwin's pension that RBS or another bank had gone under. Re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic would have been an under-statement of how that would have looked.
The real anger shouldn't be aimed at the government but at a board who acted so cynically, sadly showing what Barclays has just proved yet again with its gagging of The Guardian - that bankers simply do not understand how they are perceived by the rest of us. What is needed to steer us out of this crisis is a real partnership between government, regulators (here and elsewhere but especially the European Union) and financial institutions. Clearly, too many of the latter are still not working to the same agenda as everyone else. That is the real issue now.

March 23, 2009

Tax bomb has started ticking

While the very public rows about the causes and consequences of the economic crisis continue to grab the headlines, we can see one of the key battlegrounds for next year's General Election emerging: tax policy.
With government spending now so far beyond any previous targets as borrowing heads towards 11% of national income (the highest among the G7 countries) and the public finances deteriorating daily as tax receipts plummet, the tax timebomb is ticking. Fear of its potential damage to the economy has already tipped the Conservatives into state of public confusion. On Saturday, shadow chancellor George Osborne said that a 45% Income Tax band was inevitable, even though that would be little more than a flea bite on the bloated public sector deficit. Yesterday, Kenneth Clarke, recently restored to the Conservative front bench as shadow business secretary, suggested that the previous Tory commitment to raise the Inheritance Tax threshold to £1m could be jettisoned. This was clearly too much tax in one weekend for the  Tories and Mr Clarke was busy "clarifying" his remarks this morning saying that the £1m threshold would be in the next manifesto.
The simple truth is that taxes will have to go up almost as soon as any recovery looks secure. The real questions are by how much, how fast and how can it be done in such a way that the government doesn't promptly push the UK economy back into reverse. The minor turbulence that has disturbed the Conservative revival this weekend will be nothing as the tax bomb ticks ever louder over the coming months.

March 25, 2009

What can Brown salvage from the G20 Summit?

I am still struggling to see where this consensus the Prime Minister keeps talking about over fiscal stimuli and international agreement on future regulation is going to come from. His current mini-world tour in the run up to next week's London Summit doesn't seem to be getting him anywhere very fast. It is almost as if he is saying the same thing over and over again in an attempt to convince himself that everyone agrees with him but he is actually beginning to look very isolated.
The only clear consensus I can see among the UK, the US and the European Union is over the push for greater transparency on the part of tax havens and can easily imagine this being trumpeted as a major triumph in order to cover up the divisions elsewhere.
On regulation, it looks as if there is very little meeting of minds and, as I have said before in this blog, Europe is making the running here, although there is now some very tough talk emerging from the US too. So far, the UK hasn't put any specific proposals on the table so it is hard to see exactly where the expectations are being set for the summit.
When it comes to pumping even more public money into beleaguered economies, this message has gone down well enough in New York where the new administration has embraced this route with vigour but it is being met with a frosty reception on this side Atlantic. The main EU countries are not struck on this approach, although both France and Germany have indulged in some targeted public support, especially in the automotive sector.
It is at home where the support for this approach is collapsing. Yesterday, the Governor of the Bank of England made it clear that the central bank does not believe further extension of the public debt is sensible and, right on cue, the markets gave it a thumbs down today when they failed to fully support the gilt auction the the first time in seven years, an ominous sign that even if the government wanted to do more it simply won't be able to.
It is getting very hard to see where Gordon Brown is going to be able to take the G20 Summit.

March 30, 2009

MPs need the shake-up, not their expenses

I have been watching the current frenzy over stories of MPs expenses with a growing sense of despair. We are already facing a crisis because of the lack of respect for politicians and political processes in this country which is causing an accelerating disengagement from the democratic dialogue between citizens and Parliament. This is a cause of huge concern and should be at the forefront of MPs' minds. Instead,it seems that all too many of them have their own pockets as their first concern.
Frankly, I think what Jacqui Smith's husband watched is almost totally irrelevant. What I want to know is why does an MP even think that they can submit a Sky TV bill as a Parliamentary expense? It almost beggars belief. This might seem small fry against the huge amounts claimed for so-called second homes that are often totally unnecessary but it really does expose just how totally divorced most MPs are from the rest of us. As much as I respect many MPs I deal with, I do think that we have a real problem with the type of people who are elected to Parliament. We need a massive change of personnel at Westminster, not just an overhaul of the expenses system. A huge reduction in the number of MPs to around 450 should be a key objective of a complete review of Parliament, its role in the 21st century, the way it works and the way it and its occupants are managed.
Anything less and we will quickly reach a state of total alienation between Parliament and the people it is meant to represent.

April 3, 2009

G20 points to a new era of regulation - but by whom?

There will be hundreds of thousands of words written over the next few days analysing the outcome of yesterday's G20 Summit in London and I will be looking hard for an answer to this question: who is in charge of the new, tougher, regulation that has been promised?
The communique from the summit says that the Financial Stability Forum will be revamped into a Financial Stability Board and given new powers to oversee  (note, not regulate) banks and international markets. However, it also says that the International Monetary Fund should take a stronger role in supervising the world financial system. Are the seeds of conflict being sown here?
The communique from the summit certainly sets out a tough sounding manifesto for regulation and supervision but is too quiet on how that should be delivered. This probably leaves the door wide open for the European Union, with the strong backing of France and Germany, to pursue the agenda it has already set out in the Larosiere Report. This could create further conflict with the newly emboldened FSB and IMF.
Of course, another key point of interest to many of us will be how this will play out in the battlefield of domestic politics. Gordon Brown has won alot of praise for getting a consensus on so many points out of the summit, although he did fail on the major fiscal stimulus he was hoping for. This throws the focus back onto the Budget later this month. Without the extra help he was hoping for from the rest of the world and UK government spending already seriously over-committed, he has limited room for manoeuvre with time running out. The potential medium to long term benefits of the summit deal will not be enough to revive Labour's political fortunes. They need something that is going to make a major impact in the next 12 months if the Prime Minister's success on the international stage is to help him towards electoral success next year.

April 9, 2009

Is breaking up the RBS and Lloyds a good idea?

I am totally unconvinced by the new Conservative policy of breaking up the partially state-owned banks as their ownership is returned to the private sector. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne's speech advocating this earlier this week was full of glib phrases - "too big to fail but potentially too big to bail" - but desperately short on substance and an understanding of the consequences of pursing such a policy.
We need a banking sector that is fit for the modern world, one that will be increasingly global despite the current retrenchment by some multi-national corporations. I say "we" and I really mean Britain here. If British banks are too small to serve the needs of global corporations then they simply won't get the business and huge amounts of capital will flow out of the City of London and the UK economy. That will cause untold economic damage.
Mr Osborne also failed to say what he would do with the banks that remain wholly in private hands. Is he expecting the Financial Services Authority and the Bank of England to break them up? If they aren't broken up, how will he stop Barclays, HSBC, Santander and others outside the UK regulatory net buying up the nicely parceled-up mini-banks he will create with his privatisation programme?
Where he could have a point that would have been worth making - because the government is very quiet on this - is how do you return such huge state holdings to the private sector without de-stabilising the stock market and the banking sector? Timing will be one part of the answer but selling stakes off in digestible chunks will very likely be another. This lack of an properly thought out exit strategy is one area where the opposition should be scoring a few hits on the government.

April 20, 2009

Treasury Committee picks off its targets one-by-one

The Treasury Select Committee looks to be pursuing an interesting strategy when it comes to reporting on its in-depth inquiry into the causes of the banking crisis.
Usually Select Committees publish single reports at the end of such inquiries with recommendations for legislative action if appropriate. What the Treasury Select Committee is doing is publishing a series of reports focussing on specific issues. The first of these came out earlier this month and called for compensation for charities that lost money when the Icelandic banks collapsed but dismissed calls for local authorities to be similarly compensated. Why this piecemeal approach?
There seem to be two obvious answers to that question. The first is that the committee disagrees over some of the fundamental issues thrown up by the inquiry and has no hope of reaching an consensus on an all embracing overall report. The alternative explanation is that the members feel they will make more impact if they pick off the key areas of concern one-by-one. It seems this latter explanation is the more likely.
The tone of the committee's many public hearings on the banking crisis did not suggest that there were too many areas of fundamental party political disagreement over the key issues, certainly not enough to derail a report, although the huge challenge of getting agreement over all the topics that a wide-ranging report would cover shouldn't be under-estimated.I think the members have taken the view that they can make more impact and move faster by homing in on issues where they believe they can make a difference to the public and political debates.
I shall be looking out especially for the committee's response to the proposal that regulators should be able to impose restrictions on the press at times of financial crisis. I submitted a hard-hitting response to this proposal in behalf of Incisive Media which can be found on p141 of the published evidence: this should be read in conjunction with the evidence from the Periodical Publishers' Association which is on p178 as they were written to complement each other.

April 21, 2009

The Budget: who will come out on top?

One of the most fascinating aspects of tomorrow's Budget Statement is going to be who will come out on top - Alistair Darling, George Osborne or Vince Cable?
The Chancellor is obviously under huge pressure to deliver a package of measures that is seen to be an imaginative and stabilising influence in the current economic crisis and which helps Labour recover the political initiative. It won't be easy and the leaks over the weekend show just how limited his scope is going to be tomorrow.
His Tory counterpart, George Osborne, will be under almost as much pressure to perform and deliver because there is a growing band of Tory MPs who do not think he is the right person for the job. One of his key problems, and one that he will have to deal with again tomorrow, is that he has been eclipsed by the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman Vince Cable at every stage of the unfolding financial and economic crisis. Many Tories were disappointed when Kenneth Clarke wasn't brought back into the Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Chancellor rather than Shadow Business Secretary at the beginning of the year. With the entry of the UK into the Euro nowhere to be seen on the political horizon at the moment, the one issue that divided Mr Clarke from the majority of Tories has disappeared and he is seen by many as the ideal running mate for David Cameron in an election that will be dominated by economic issues.
Mr Cable, on the other hand, will be under the least pressure tomorrow. Sure, expectations that he will exploit any weaknesses in the Chancellor's proposals will be high but he is not under any threat himself. However, if he does succeed in scoring some serious political points then expect talk of a coalition government with Vince Cable as Chancellor to start up again.

April 22, 2009

Darling shows he has run out of ideas

The initial reaction to Darling's Budget speech has to be that he has demonstrated that the government has now run out of ideas on the economy. He will score with left of centre voters for his attacks on high earners with the cap on pensions tax relief and the 50% rate of tax but he will get widely criticised for being too timid on the public sector deficit and for the tax increase on booze and fuel. Unfortunately for him, Labour needs to do alot more than appeal to its core supporters.
His argument for not acting with greater vigour to cut public spending seems to rely on his optimistic forecast that we will start to see a recovery by the end of this year with growth in 2010. This seems so far out of line with almost every other forecast that it is scarcely believable. I didn't even get the impression that the Chancellor really believed it either so downbeat was his presentation of that section of his speech. Indeed, overall, he seemed to lack conviction, perhaps demonstrating that he feels totally hemmed in by the economic and fiscal circumstances.
Cameron's response has been all bluster and even less substance, although I have always thought that it must be one of the most difficult speeches to make. As I said yesterday, the real test for the opposition will come later in the Budget debate when Osborne and Cable get their chance to launch more considered critiques of the Budget.

April 23, 2009

The Budget points towards a decade of gloom and conflict

I've been trying to pick my way through the detail of yesterday's Budget statement to find some good news and have been getting ever more depressed as I do so. I have come to the conclusion that we are heading for a decade of economic gloom against a background of political and, perhaps, increasing industrial conflict.
It looks like a re-run of the 1970s.
At the end of the 60s - a decade of hope, growth and change - the UK economy hit the buffers. Inflation was the emerging problem then while public debt is the millstone we have round our necks now. In 1970 the Labour government of Harold Wilson was voted out and Ted Heath's Tories came in with promises of radical economic reform. These promises were not delivered as the harsh economic realities the Conservatives inherited knocked them off course time and time again. By the end of 1973 we had descended into industrial chaos with most people working a three day week. An early election in 1974 on a "Who governs the country" theme saw the poisoned chalice handed back to Harold Wilson who passed it on to James Callaghan after two years. He sent us cap in hand to the International Monetary Fund, presided over massive cuts in public spending and led us into the Winter of Discontent when I remember walking past Leicester Square everyday where the bin bags were piled ten feet high and covered the whole square - it stunk. At the end of the decade the country was so disillusioned with Labour that they were prepared to take a risk on the ultra-radical Margaret Thatcher.
We are at the turn of a decade again, face a General Election next year and have dismal economic prospects. It seems depressingly familiar territory. The 1970s was also an era of highly polarised politics and the Budget seems to be taking us back in that direction too.
Much of my gloom has been made worse by the fantasy forecasts the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, deployed yesterday: there isn't a single economic expert that shares his optimism that we will start to see a recovery later this year and reach the dizzy heights of 1.25% growth next year. Unless he is right and everyone else is wrong this means that next year's Budget will see further significant tax increases and cuts in public spending as the Treasury struggles to close a widening gap between revenues and spending. If this is the scenario then we might even see a slightly early election so that Labour doesn't have to administer the medicine because for Mr Darling to have to present a Budget admitting the forecasts he made yesterday were wrong would cause catastrophic political damage to Labour.
This doesn't mean that David Cameron is set fair to sail into Downing Street, although his rather blustering speech yesterday got a good press this morning so he probably feels quietly confident at the moment. He will have to be pretty honest about the medicine he intends to administer and convince the country that the Tories have the courage to administer it. This is where Ted Heath's government failed: it wasn't honest enough, tough enough or sufficiently long term in its thinking. Its first Budget was willfully misconceived because it ignored all the warning signs about inflation. I suppose one difference this time is that there is no way anyone can be unaware of the huge public sector deficit that is encircling us. 


April 24, 2009

I'm not the only one who sees the 1970s looming on the horizon

Despite one commentator's optimism in response to my predictions that we are heading for a decade of economic misery and industrial conflict on a par with the 1970s, there is plenty of expert opinion this morning lining up on my side. Alot of what the IFS says in terms of the approach that needs to be taken to public spending reflects the thought-provoking Reform report published on Monday.
It is, however, all very well for academics and think tanks to urge people to "think the unthinkable" when it comes to facing up to the need to haul down public expenditure in the next decade but it has to be done with a degree of political coherence and in a way that at least has a chance of winning public support. If we are forced into the sort of IMF dictated cuts that we had in the 1970s, we will head straight for the sort of industrial conflict and social unrest that marred much of that decade.
Are any of the main political parties offering the sort of leadership that can steer us through the fraught years ahead?


May 8, 2009

MPs' expenses greed is shocking but we need to get over it

It is clear from the leaked information on the expense claims of ministers in the Daily Telegraph this morning that MPs are in for several weeks of constant, almost humiliating scrutiny of their financial affairs. It is hard to have much sympathy for them because almost any sane reasonable person can see that even these claims, which were apparently within the threadbare rules, go far beyond anything that can be justified by reference to normal practice elsewhere in the public or private sector. There was a real conspiracy at Westminster to keep quiet about the inadequacies of the system so that many (how many will be come clear over the coming days) could rape the system for all it was worth.
Clearly, these people did not enjoy the benefit of the advice I all too frequently received from my headmaster: 'Beware your sins will find you out'. Well, those sins are finding them out big time right now.
It is hard to keep a sense of perspective about this sorry mess: every revelation raises the blood pressure and further lowers the standing of politicians in the eyes of the people they represent. This was already at a low ebb having sunk to the stage where alarmingly high numbers of people are disengaging from the democratic processes: this matters, it really matters. In the toughest economic times for three generations we need a government that can take the (right) tough decisions and in doing so inspire respect so that everybody understands the need to work together to steer through the crisis. We are a very long way from having that sense of leadership and common purpose. We are almost looking at the nightmare of the sort of political vacuum in which extremism can flourish.
One example of the consequences: there has rightly been alot of criticism of many senior bankers for making sure they looked after themselves with excessive bonuses while leaving their institutions and the financial system of which they are a key element hit the rocks. But who is going to hold them to account? It certainly isn't going to be MPs in this Parliament because they are now stripped bare of any collective moral authority to criticise anyone for selfish greed. Maybe a few will be shown to have resisted the temptation to exploit the system and they might come to the fore. If so, we have to hope that they are among the more articulate and well informed breed of politician. But, collectively, they have thrown away any authority on this issue, just one of many.
In the meantime, we will all have to look to the press, with all its flaws and partisanship, to hold banks and politicians to account. Many journalists' expenses claims would occasionally raise a few eyebrows - I do remember trying to explain to my then boss that a helicopter from Nice airport to Monte Carlo was really a cost-effective and efficient way to travel once but at least I had to explain it to someone - but the harsh public scrutiny that the Parliamentary expenses and bankers' bonuses are being subject to by the press is the best chance we have of stopping such abuses.
As I said at the beginning, we need to keep a sense of perspective and mustn't let this turn into some form of mob rule and wild witchunt akin to Chelsea fans and their death threats to referees everytime they lose a high profile European match. We must seek to hold them to account while at the same time allowing both MPs and the bankers to develop better, fairer systems of remuneration because we need good people in both jobs.
There is a danger in this row about expenses and the huge public pressure for reform that we end up with a system that takes us back into the last century when only the wealthy or those with steady second incomes could afford to be MPs. It is an expensive business representing constituencies a long way outside London, especially if they are rural, and we need to ensure that people are properly supported to do this or we will end up with an even more unrepresentative Parliament.
There is a degree of urgency about this but not so much so that we need the Prime Minister to think up a scheme over breakfast again and rush onto You Tube. It needs to be thought through and we should leave it to the inquiry under Sir Christopher Kelly that has already been set up. That has promised to report during the summer and that is a tight enough timetable for such an important issue.

May 21, 2009

Viggers' duck house brings the curtain down on a distinguished career but raises the stakes in the body-strewn political battlefield

I suppose it was inevitable that one of the long-standing members of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Insurance & Financial Services would be caught in the expenses scandal and it happened last night when the Daily Telegraph revealed that Sir Peter Viggers, Tory MP for Gosport, was being featured in this morning's edition for his excessive claims for garden expenses, including a floating duck house. In political terms, Sir Peter was summarily executed with David Cameron instantly telling him that he would not be standing at the next election after a 35 year career in Parliament. Whatever you think of the claims that is a huge personal blow to Sir Peter.
He is well known in the insurance industry having been a constructive critic of Lloyd's during its troubled period in the late 80s and early 90s, ending up as a member of the Lloyd's Council between 1992-95 when many of the reforms that have served the market well were put in place. He is still chairman of the Lloyd's pension fund.
The wider implications of his instant dismissal are significant. If this is where the Tories are going to set the benchmark for dismissal then we could see dozens more MPs effectively sacked over the next couple of weeks. It appears that David Cameron is now running the Conservative party more along lines the rest of us would recognise with instant dismissal for serious misconduct. In doing so, his is clawing his way up to the moral high ground (if there can be any in this ghastly mess) leaving Gordon Brown and the Labour trailing.
If the standards the Conservatives now appear to be setting are imposed on the Labour Party the Cabinet could be decimated, especially if the property deal swindles many of them have perpetrated are deemed to be beyond what is acceptable.

May 22, 2009

MPs are fast losing the plot in their attempts to excuse the mess they have made for themselves

I was going to leave the subject of MPs' expenses alone for a few days at least but I can't let Nadine Dorries' hysterical outburst today pass without comment.
Quite simply, Methinks she doth protest too much.
I can understand her point about MPs being told by the fees office to claim for what they could, as that is obviously what happened. But, like my mother used to say, if someone told you to stick your head in an oven would you? Just because you can doesn't always mean you should. Many MPs didn't take the ludicrous advice offered to them so that rather negates that point.
I think alot of journalists had an idea that some pretty dishonest and disreputable things were going on but no-one was ever going to come clean voluntarily which is why the Freedom of Information Act was needed. Don't forget it took a four year battle to get this information out into the open and it was journalists that led that campaign. Without hard evidence on the precise number of ducks living in unaccustomed luxury and where, any paper that published its suspicions as allegations would have risked a fortune in lawyer's fees defending just one story. And who tilted the libel laws against the media again with the no-win, no-fee regime? Oh, what a surprise, MPs.
As to the Telegraph's tactics, what do MPs expect? They have blocked every attempt to open up the way Parliament works to the expected levels of scrutiny in the 21st century so you cannot expect the Telegraph to pussyfoot around. The acid test is: Have they got it right? So far, yes.
If they published the whole lot all at once, as Nadine Dorries suggests, many of the perpetrators would escape unnoticed amid all the conflicting headlines. I think you can only pick them off one at a time. If Parliament doesn't like this then it should publish all the expenses now - after all, its had four years' notice that this day was coming.
I do have some personal sympathy for MPs as people as I mentioned in the piece I did on Peter Viggers yesterday but they have brought this on themselves and must expect to reap what they have sown.
I was struck by the tone of the BBC Question Time last night which really brought home the extent of the political crisis we are in. I agree with the view that an early election would be chaotic but I think we do need one very soon. I suggest that the political parties cancel their September party conferences as no-one but no-one is going to want to watch them preening themselves before the adoring faithful (few) and instead hold an election then.

May 27, 2009

Daily Telegraph's expenses spotlight falls on John Greenway

It seems that very few MPs will escape without having to do some explaining in the wake of the Daily Telegraph's continued sifting through the minutiae of their expenses claims over the last four years. Among the latest to blush a little is John Greenway, chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Insurance & Financial Services.
His claims for stocking the patio garden of the London flat he owned with his ex-wife, Sylvia, come under the spotlight today but, on the scale of the outrages perpetrated by some MPs, it seems a relatively minor misdemeanour. The article also comments on the profit he made on the sale of the flat, pointing out that he paid Capital Gains Tax on this but omitting to mention that the sale probably only took place because his divorce was going through at the time. His simple, straighforward response doesn't mention this, probably wisely.
John Greenway's north Yorkshire seat of Ryedale disappears at the next election and he is not standing again, having failed in his attempt to win selection for the new seat of Thirsk and Malton when it came up in November 2006. 

June 30, 2009

Flood defence spending and Thoresen review get legislative nod from Gordon Brown

The government has been very slow to put any flesh on the bones of the Prime Minister's statement on Building Britain's Future yesterday, in which he set out the draft legislative programme for the session that will start in November and finish early with the General Election, most likely in June next year.
Usually, a deluge of press notices flows forth from Whitehall with briefings on the bills announced in such speeches. So far, apart from housing, there has been virtually nothing on the dozen measures the Prime Minister promised. This shows that the announcement was brought forward and rushed out as Labour tries desperately to win back the political initiative.
So, what do we know about the programme that will affect the financial services sector? 
Most obviously, there is a Financial Services and Business Bill that will be the vehicle for delivering regulatory reform. Quite what that reform will look like is still a matter of a major debate but the short briefing from 10 Downing Street on the bill makes it clear that the government is sticking to its decision to give the Financial Services Authority greater powers "to ensure financial stability". This has already provoked an increasingly bitter confrontation with the Bank of England and is likely to be the most contentious measure in the draft legislative programme.
This bill will also create a new national money guidance service which follows on from the Thoresen Review (published in October 2007) and the pilot schemes currently being run offering generic advice.
Less contentious, but very welcome to the insurance industry, will be the Flood and Water Management Bill which promises "increased investment in flood defence and improved emergency planning and flood risk management". This sounds as if it should be everything the insurance industry wanted following the Pitt Report in the wake of the severe flooding two years ago. Of course, the devil will be in the detail but at least it is there to be argued about.
The big cloud that hangs over all of this is the uncertainty over the timing of the General Election and, of course, its outcome. The dozen bills announced yesterday could be forced through if this Parliament runs to next June but any foreshortening of the session or unforeseen political or financial crises (and there have been enough of those around in the last year) and the government will struggle to complete this programme.

July 8, 2009

Regulation of banks, building societies and insurers now looks to be a significant political battleground

The initial reaction to the Chancellor's announcement of a relatively tame and limited package of reforms of financial regulation has to be that the most significant aspect is actually the Tories' response. The Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, told the House of Commons that an incoming Conservative government would scrap the tripartite regulatory system - FSA, Bank of England, Treasury - and replace it with a system where all prudential supervision of major financial institutions goes to the Bank of England, including banks, building societies and insurers. This would leave the Financial Services Authority as a "powerful regulator to protect consumers". Mr Osborne specifically said that it would have a brief "to stamp out unfair practices like mis-sold payment protection insurance and excessive bank charges".
This opens up a huge gulf between Labour and Conservatives on financial regulation as the centrepiece of Mr Darling's proposal is a further development (I hesitate to call it strengthening, although he did) of the tripartite system. This would see the Financial Services Authority retaining the principal role as the prudential regulator as well as taking on new powers to regulate hedge funds and other derivative products - at that level it would be a stronger system. Financial stability would rest with a new Council for Financial Stability, the tripartite arrangement re-invented. It is hard to see how that would work any better than the previous incarnation which failed to prevent last autumn's crisis.
The only common ground between the two major parties is over their hostility to the European Union propsoals embodied in the Larosiere Report. Both see this as potentially damaging to the UK and the City of London in particular and favour a much less prescriptive model of global co-operation. There is an element of heads in the sand over this as the EU is making  a massive land grab on the regulatory front and may have its new institutions up an running before the dust has settled on the next General Election in the UK.
The big danger in this is that the political uncertainty will actually cripple the current system, with the FSA unable to restructure and recruit, the Bank not able to develop its role and the Treasury sitting on the sidelines with civil servants not keen to do too much work that will be wasted should there be a change of government.

July 14, 2009

Vince Cable's book The Storm is worth reading for a real insight into the causes and consequences of the financial crisis


The Storm: The World Economic Crisis and What it Means is a breathtaking tour of economic policy that amply demonstrates why Vince Cable has eclipsed all other politicians with his response to the financial and economic crises of the last two years.
He puts our current problems in an historical and political context that helps the reader understand how we came so close to financial meltdown during the autumn of 2008. His almost effortless grasp of economic theory and policy can almost dazzle the reader at times and there isn't a page in this book that doesn't impart a fresh insight into the issues. Perhaps his greatest achievement is to pack so much in and yet always keep it accessible to the interested layperson, even if you do occasionally find yourself having to re-read a couple of pages because you haven't quite kept up with his relentless analysis.
True to form, he doesn't offer any glib, easy conclusions but lays out the challenges intelligently with emphasis on global action to tackle systemic risk while ensuring we do not fall into the trap of narrow economic nationalism or don the straitjacket of state capitalism.

July 28, 2009

Insurance industry makes a pitch for privatisation of social benefits

Neither the government nor the insurance industry will be rushing to stick the "privatisation" label on the proposals from the Insurance Industry Working Group, chaired by Aviva's Andrew Moss, which were published yesterday but that is what they are. It makes a pitch for a further 5% of state provided benefits to be shifted to the private sector by 2020. This represents about £17bn of government expenditure annually at current prices.
The report is pretty vague about how this will be done or which benefits would be best suited to this switch to private sector provision, although it lists unemployment, ill-health, pensions and long term care as the most likely areas. One important point the report makes is that this would be a relatively modest change of emphasis and not a radical departure from the policy pursued by successive governments since the great shift from private sector to public provision by the 1945-51 Labour government under Clement Atlee. The research underpinning the report shows that under the broad heading of social and welfare benefits approximately 65% is covered by the public sector while the remaining 35% is already private, mainly covering retirement provision, accident, ill health and income protection. So, although it is privatisation we are talking about it is important not to get too excited about it representing any sort of radical departure form the consensus of the last 60 years.
There is a danger that this sensible proposal to review that balance afresh will be dismissed by some as an attempt by the insurance industry to feather its own nest. The report certainly doesn't come across in that way. It sensibly makes the number one priority a restoration (or improvement) in consumer confidence in the industry and trust in the products it offers. Without quite saying so, what it is confronting here is its own dark past at the public/private interface. The pensions mis-selling scandal still hangs heavily over the industry and the more recent high profile problems with payment protection insurance have been a stark reminder of what happens when commission greed comes in front of customer need.
These proposals need to be taken seriously because we are drifting alarmingly towards an era when the state will not be able to afford to pick up the pieces anymore. With the saving ratio collapsing from 12% in 1980 to 2% in 2008, according to the report, there is a serious crisis brewing if some radical solutions are not put in place soon.
There is, of course, alot more to the report than this but it won't grab the headlines. Much of it  - about predictability and stability in taxation and regulation - goes over the same ground as the report from the Financial Services Global Competitiveness Group under Sir Win Bischoff, that was published last month and the two really do need to be read together. The IIWG report does, of course, enter some special pleas on behalf of the insurance industry on regulation, not least to warn of the dangers of "read across" from the banking crisis. It details the reasons why the insurance industry doesn't need tough new regulations, especially with Solvency II just around the corner in 2012. The government clearly understands this as the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, was co-chair of the group and has put his name to the report. The industry will be well advised to make sure the shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, adds the report to his reading list over the summer as his recent proposals on regulatory reform lump insurers in with the banks.
Elsewhere in the report the industry scores some nice lobbying points on a few of its current concerns such as pleural plaques and the Equality Bill and eloquently sets out the case against retrospective legislation which does so much to undermine its pricing models.
One area the report doesn't adequately address is the need to compete against the banks for potentially scarce capital. It says alot about the dangers of making the UK insurance industry uncompetitive when compared to other markets but not enough about the huge capital grab that the banks will have to launch in the next few years. We all know that high risk banking operations will have to be underpinned by much higher levels of capital than at present - we just don't know how much more capital regulators will insist they hold or what timetables will be put in place. They will, however, be looking for this at just the same time as UK insurers will need fresh capital if the £17bn switch of social benefit provision gets the green light. This needs to be on the agenda.



October 9, 2009

So many of the big issues for financial services were overlooked at the party conferences, although Cameron did remember at the last minute

I have watched, waited, searched and searched again for signs that our three main political parties are looking for answers to some of the key issues surrounding the future of the financial services sector. My wait appears to have been just about in vain.
Sure, there was lots of bluster about bankers' bonuses at the Labour and Liberal Democrat conferences but this barely amounted to more than cheap headline grabbing and beyond some pretty obvious proposals about linking bankers' remuneration to longer term performance, they barely scratched the surface of that debate.
I had expected the main parties to stake out some distinctive territory on at least two of the key issues that loom large as a result of the financial crises of the last two years and last autumn's cataclysmic events in particular.
The first is the failure of elaborate systems of regulation to predict, prevent or adequately respond to the crises. There is a fierce debate raging around the world about how we can regulate the financial services sector better. It has been on the agenda at the last two G20 Summits world leaders consider it that important. Yet, it seemed to find no place on the agendas of the party conferences at least, that is, until it belatedly got a mention in David Cameron's speech to the Conservative Party conference yesterday. He slipped in a brief mention of the Tories' plans to transfer the main regulatory burden to the Bank of England, condemning Labour's no change stance on the way. We are still in the dark over exactly how the Financial Services Authority will be split up between the Bank of England and the proposed Consumer Protection Agency  but at least we know it is still on their agenda.
The other issue the next government will not be able to duck is what to do with the state owned financial institutions, yet no-one seemed prepared to address this. Part of the public anger over bankers' bonuses is the lack of understanding of the difference between ownership and control. The government has tried to separate the two, taking ownership but choosing not to exercise control: the public believes control follows ownership as night follows day.
This is an area where there is an opportunity for creative policymaking, not least when you consider how to tackle the challenge of returning some of these state owned assets to the private sector - which the next government will have to start doing at sometime. Just consider some of the options: the state could take control and use that to create new forms of socially useful financial products (if you follow Lord Turner's analysis), it could break them up to set the banking sector on a path away from the "too big to fail" destination we seem to have reached in the last decade, it could insist on new forms of ownership (based on mutuality) as they are de-nationalised or it could go for high profile privatisations just designed to pour money back into the public purse. You can see quickly the potential for staking out distinctive political territory with policies of real substance.
It will be impossible for the parties to continue to ignore these issues as we go into 2010 and they start drawing up their election manifestoes. It seems a shame that they all missed the opportunity to start a genuine debate during the party conference season.

October 13, 2009

Back to Westminster and it is as if the summer never happened

If ever there was a day when this discredited and demoralised Parliament - and that includes the government - should have realised that its number was up, yesterday was it.
The long summer break, the party conferences, the certainty of a General Election less than eight months away and the first, tentative, signs of economic recovery should have been the point at which the past started to be the past and the future started to come into focus with a little more clarity. Instead, it was a disaster for MPs, Parliament and democracy in this country.
Quite what Sir Thomas Legg was thinking when he decided to retrospectively re-write the rules on expenses is anyone's guess. He may have a point that some of the allowances were too generous but they were the rules and he was asked to look at the enforcement of the rules as they stood and any breaches of them that hadn't already been highlighted, not unilaterally change the rules. That said, he has done it and put MPs' expenses right back on the front pages.
The effect of this is to further erode the public's already limited respect for MPs, Parliament and, ultimately, representative democracy. Although the starting pistol for the witch hunt of MPs was fired by those MPs who fleeced an inadequate system, it has run out of control and damaged many decent MPs who do understand the trust the public places in them. 
Just why we need Parliament and need MPs who understand what they are there to do was demonstrated by yesterday's other major political news - the proposed sale of some state-owned assets.
Amazingly, after all this government's talk of restoring Parliament to its proper role of holding the executive to account, it had no plans to tell Parliament that it was planning this asset sale. It took demands from the Liberal Democrats' Treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, to get a Treasury minister to come to the dispatch box and explain what is going on. In the end, the number two at the Treasury Liam Byrne made a limp attempt to explain and defend the proposals, having suffered a lashing from Mr Cable who dismissed the plans as a "national car boot sale". There was still no indication as to how the huge state-owned assets in the financial sector are going to be handled. Amazingly, this morning there is still nothing on the Treasury's website about these sell-off plans.
The only sane conclusion to draw out of another shameful day at Westminster is that we need a new Parliament soon, very soon.

October 14, 2009

John McFall puts the "too big to fail" issue on the political agenda and John Greenway bows out

Interesting to see that the Treasury Select Committee chairman, Labour MP John McFall, has tabled an Early Day Motion (no 2008) in the House of Commons calling for the big banks - those deemed 'too big to fail' to be broken up.
This is an issue that will not go away and nor should it. There is simply too much moral hazard in having institutions that know they can take almost any risks they like because the state simply cannot let them go under if they screw up. It forms part of the overall theme of Mr McFall's approach to the turmoil of the last couple of years which he set out at last night's Parliamentary Reception for the Post Magazine Business Leaders Forum - neatly summed up as things have to change and change significantly. In Mr McFall's view there is no going back to the old ways. This means, he argues, as well as breaking up some banks, there cannot be a return to the bonus culture of old, especially while there is so much public money slushing around the banking system, and that the sector should also be expected to devote more attention to addressing financial exclusion.
Last night's reception was also notable for being the last that will be hosted by John Greenway for Post Magazine. He hosted the first, very modest, reception we organised in one of the smaller dining rooms at the House of Commons at the end of 1989 to launch the Post Magazine 150th anniversary celebrations that ran through 1990. When we came back for the second reception the following autumn we were ready to launch the All Party Parliamentary Group on Insurance & Financial Services, of which John was a founding member. When the late Sir Bob McCrindle stood down at the 1992 General Election, John was elected as chair of the group, a post he still holds. John announced three years ago that he would be standing down at the next election.

October 30, 2009

Some MPs still don't get what needs to be done to put the expenses scandal behind them

There are many honest, hardworking MPs. There. I've said it and I know it to be true.
Sadly, there are also far too many who have been exploiting a woefully inadequate system for dealing with the many challenges and legitimate costs of being an MP. What really shocks me is the inability of many of those in that second category to understand what needs to be done to start the very long process of rebuilding respect and trust among the people who elect them. The complaints about the likely shape of the recommendations from the Independent Committee on Standards in Public Life and row over the refusal to allow MPs to vote on them vividly illustrates this gulf.
From what I have seen of the proposals they largely make sense. I think there could be a legitimate debate about whether MPs from outside London should be allowed to buy or rent in London so long as the scope for making excessive profits on property deals is brought to an end. To me home "flipping"  has been one of the most distasteful aspects of the whole scandal because it seems to be a very deliberate attempt to make as much money as possible using the public subsidy they enjoy and, in many case, avoid paying taxes that the rest of us have to pay. I still struggle to understand how that isn't fraud.
The rest of what has been rather clumsily leaked over the last week is reasonable. I especially like the idea that MPs who live no further out of central London than I do will no longer be subsidised for second homes in town. It will be a pleasure to see them join the rest of us commuting on most days - remembering that they don't have to go to Parliament on as many days of the year as you and I have to go to our place of work because they often (rightly) have to work in their constituencies as well. I am afraid I don't buy the late night working argument as I, along with tens of thousands of others, often have to work late or attend functions as part of my job. Last night I got home after midnight having attended a City function but I do not feel I need a second home to do my job.
Perhaps the most shocking aspect of the argument going on at the moment is the feeling that those MPs arguing that they should be able to vote on the committee's proposals next week are trying to have one last hurrah at our expense.
The House of Commons will change dramatically after the next election. With the numbers already standing down and the likelihood of a dramatic shift in electoral fortunes almost half of MPs could be new next year. It will be a great opportunity for Parliament to make a fresh start and it shouldn't be saddled with an expenses system voted in by people who are no longer there. Unfortunately, some of those opposing the reforms are undoubtedly looking to the potential impact on their own pockets and worrying about what they will get in their final few months as an MP and as a severance package when they go or lose.
The government is right to resist all attempts to force a vote on the reform package. 

November 23, 2009

Plenty to keep the insurance industry occupied in Parliament's final session but what will make it over the finishing line?

The political arguments about the Queen's Speech might still be raging but my plea to the insurance industry is not to be fooled by those into failing to have a good look at what is coming up in Parliament in the next few months. There is an easy trap looming for those inclined to dismiss the the government proposals set out last week as more of an election manifesto than a serious legislative programme. Fall into that trap and you will overlook some bills of major importance to the insurance industry.
Top of that list must be the Flood and Water Management Bill which enacts most of the proposals put forward by Sir Michael Pitt following the serious flooding in the West Country, Yorkshire and Humberside in 2007. This will shoot to the top of the agenda after last week's terrible flooding in Cumbria. Looking through the summary of the main provisions in the bill, it looks as if the insurance industry will be pretty comfortable with what the government is putting forward. The danger will come from attempts to add to it as it goes through Parliament. There is, for instance, a head of steam building up around the National Flood Forum's campaign to force insurers to offer significant premium discounts to householders who install their own flood defences and I expect this to be raised as the bill goes through Parliament.
Also of importance to insurers will be the continuing debate around the Equality Bill and the possibility of specific statutory requirements being imposed on the travel insurance market to prevent age discrimination. This Bill didn't complete its Parliamentary passage in the last session and has been re-introduced with its final House of Commons debate scheduled for 2 December. From there it will go to the House of Lords where travel insurers can expect to be attacked for the scarcity and cost of cover for the over-70s.
It will be impossible to ignore the Financial Services Bill which aims to deliver the government's promises to make the tripartite system more effective by creating a Council for Financial Stability, impose statutory controls on bankers' pay and improve systems for consumers claiming compensation for the failure of institutions or individual products. Among the proposals for better consumer protection are an extension of the remit of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and a new provision to allow a single representative case to go to court to establish the liability and scope of failure of a product, advice or regulation. Many of the debates on the bill will be high profile as the three main parties attempt to stake out distinctive territory on the future of financial regulation, the City and bankers' pay. That does not mean that there will not be some devil in the detail.
A further piece of legislation for the insurance industry to keep an eye on will be the Civil Law Reform Bill. This is being introduced as a draft bill which means that it is unlikely to make it to the statute book before the General Election. It does, however, contain alot to interest the insurance industry including new proposals for assessing damages following fatal accidents and the long promised reforms of insurance contract law for personal lines promised by the Law Commission.
If this wasn't a long enough agenda a private members' bill has been introduced into the House of Lords by the Labour peer Baroness Quin to make it law to award compensation for pleural plaques. It isn't clear as yet how far this is likely to progress but it has already been given an unopposed first reading and is waiting for a date for a more detailed debate. This will be a difficult one for the insurance industry and will need all the Association of British Insurers' experience and skills in lobbying to put the case against the bill without attracting too much criticism for insensitivity and callousness.
This is a long list of important pieces of legislation that will require alot of input from the insurance industry to ensure that it gets what it wants. It may also find that it has to bid a retreat on some issues, such as age discrimination and travel insurance, if it is not to find itself at loggerheads with public opinion or in the uncomfortable position of attempting to defend the indefensible. The biggest danger, however, is that much of this legislation might be passed in great haste and be poorly drafted as a result. When Gordon Brown finally names the day for the General Election this will initiate frantic negotiations between the parties' business managers to decide which legislation gets forced through in what will then be barely a week left of Parliamentary sittings. This usually means that huge chunks of legislation get passed without any debate or proper scrutiny - inevitably some of that is flawed. It is a very unsatisfactory way of dealing with important issues.

November 30, 2009

UK financial services is now a clear EU target

There is only one way to sum up the shake-up in the European Commission portfolios from a UK perspective - we were totally stuffed. We lost out lock, stock and barrel, leaving the UK financial services sector looking very exposed to attack from those who believe that its free-market 'Anglo-Saxon' approach to regulation and market behavior lies at the heart of the financial crises of the last two years.
The upshot of the government's mishandling of the discussions about the distribution of key EC portfolios is that the UK is in the weakest position in the EU since it joined in 1973.
It all started with the misguided promotion of Tony Blair as a candidate for the new post of permanent president of the commission. A survey of the European press will show all too clearly that the only people who took this seriously were 10 Downing Street and the Daily Mail - it was a non-starter as far as the rest of Europe was concerned. Having woken up late in the day to the fact that the Blair campaign was doomed to failure, Gordon Brown then focussed on the other new post covering foreign affairs. There was a false start with the attempt to put forward David Milliband as a candidate but he had the sense to see that this was potentially a political backwater and refused to have anything to do with it. But the UK government had convinced itself that this was a deserved consolation prize for not getting the presidency and was being encouraged in this thinking by France and Germany. So, step forward Lady Ashton whose best qualification for the job seems to be that she has taken a few foreign holidays.
Having sold the UK a pup, the French and Germans then had the field to themselves in carving up the key economic portfolios and so Frenchman Michel Barnier ended up in the internal market and financial services beat with a clear mandate to focus on the City of London. The Germans wanted, and got, energy.
Lining up alongside Barnier in the other economic portfolios will be two liberals - Finland's Olli Rhen (trade) and Karel de Gucht of Belgium (economic and financial affairs) - neither of whom can be expected to be slow in supporting tougher regulation of financial markets. To complete this gloomy picture is the appointment of a Spanish socialist - Joaquin Almunia - as competition commissioner.
It looks as if the UK's financial services sector will have to look outside the Commission for support and is likely to find itself increasingly reliant on the European Parliament to get its voice heard which will make the role of UK Liberal Democrat MEP Sharon Bowles even more important to the City than it was before. She chairs the parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee which has to approve any Commission proposals on financial regulation before they can be passed into EU law. In her few months in the post she has proved a safe and sensible pair of hands when it comes to the rushed attempts to force through new regulations on hedge funds. I imagine quite a few public affairs departments in the City will be looking her up this week.

January 4, 2010

Welcome to the five (or is it three) month election campaign

Today seems already to have been declared the official start of the General Election campaign with a barrage of announcements from all the major parties. I wonder how this will play out with the electorate?
Politics and politicians have never been held in lower esteem in this country and there is a grave danger that people will just disengage from the political process unless the campaign strikes a radically fresh tone. I am not sure that months of endless policy announcements and traditional campaigning meets that demanding requirement. 
The uncertainty over the election date lies at the heart of that problem. Having the date in the gift of the Prime Minister of the day is one of the worst aspects of 'old politics'. It has already become a game to guess the date as Labour (ab)uses this power in an attempt to wrong foot the opposition parties. I have always thought that we should have fixed term Parliaments that can only be dissolved in exceptional circumstances to put an end to this nonsense. I would be delighted if Gordon Brown turned around today and said he was going to fix the date now - late-March or early May - to end all the pointless speculation and double-guessing. It won't happen, of course, because Mr Brown is a creature born out of the current system.
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January 22, 2010

Obama bank plan puts UK on the defensive and EU in the shade

Barak Obama has clearly run out of patience, not just with Wall Street but with other governments and financial regulators around the world. His shock announcement yesterday of a a radical new regulatory regime for the banking sector has obviously been brewing for a long time and, one imagines, has been discussed, at least in principle, with other governments in the G20.
The loss of a vital Senate seat to the Republicans in Massachusetts earlier this week galvanised President Obama into action. You can't help wondering if he had made this announcement on Monday whether the Democrats would have held on to the Massachusetts seat such has been the favourable reception of this plan on what the Americans refer to as Main Street.
The banks loved the idea that the G20 countries would only move on major regulatory reform by agreement because they knew that such agreement would be very hard to come by. President Obama has now made it clear that he is not prepared to wait for ever for such agreement to emerge - with the threat that it would be a watered down compromise when it did. Also, he needed to act after the Senate setback was followed up by Goldman Sachs' bullish bonus announcement. Flaunting their bonus billions in the face of Main Street was a pretty inept move.
I don't want to dwell on the detail of the plan devised by Paul Volckler or look at its impact on the sector but, instead, consider some of the broader political implications.
As I have already said, the coverage from the US today suggests that it will go down well and should do alot to boost the President's approval ratings. Whether that, in turn, helps him with his healthcare reforms remains to be seen but I would expect to see him closely associated with these proposals as they work their way through Congress.
In the UK, it has made the Labour government look even weaker. The attempts of the City minister Lord Myners today to suggest that the US plans are just a different way of achieving what the UK government has set out to do look very flimsy. They clearly go way, way beyond what the UK government has proposed and will lead to many people asking why the UK can't be as tough. Already, after a little wobble this morning, the Tories have lined up behind the principle, but not necessarily the detail, of the US plans and the Liberal Democrats, who will hold the crucial balance in a hung Parliament, have given them a ringing endorsement. Both opposition parties are strongly in favour of a split between investment and retail banking as a pre-requisite of major reforms.
Looking into the European Union, this will make some of the proposals it has been contemplating so far look a little timid and that will not be what the new Commission wants, especially Michel Barnier, the new French commissioner in charge of the internal market and financial services. He has come in amid a blaze of threats about punishing those who contributed so much to the current economic woes of the world. I can't imagine he will be too happy at the Americans looking and acting tougher than the EU so expect so action when the new Commission begins work in earnest in the middle of next month.
In short, President Obama has probably unleashed a wave of even tougher regulatory reform around the world by leading from the front rather than waiting for a limited consensus.

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February 8, 2010

Expenses scandal just won't go away. Do we pay? No?

The colourful, shaming saga of the abuse of Parliamentary expenses just refuses to go away. It is hard to see how it can until several things happen. A new Parliament has to be elected; a new expense system has to be put in place that is fair to MPs and also acceptable to the people who elect them; the perpetrators of the worst abuses have to be held to account; and, greater transparency has to be applied in the future.
We are actually on the way to dealing with several of those points.
Obviously, we face a General Election within a couple of months which will see around half of all MPs replaced. The new members will, hopefully, arrive with a ready understanding of the need to radically reform Parliament and the way it remunerates and supports them. This, in turn, should deal with the second point as it seems there are still many in the House of Commons - judging by the response to events last week - who still do not understand the full extent of the anger and disillusionment that is widespread in the country.
It does look as if some of the worst cases are being dealt with severely, whether it is Labour MP Harry Cohen being denied his severance pay or the trio of Labour MPs and one Tory peer being charged with a range of criminal offences. We have to hope that they all see sense and do not hide behind Parliamentary Privilege. They all protest their innocence - let them prove that in open court where the rest of us would have to if we were in a similar position.
To complete the holding of the worst perpetrators to account I still think we should be looking to the tax authorities to scrutinise serial home flipping where it was clearly used as a dodge to avoid Capital Gains Tax.
That leaves us with transparency and I do think that we are getting there on that front, even if it does then throw some awkward questions at those who have paid MPs for various activities. The publication last week of the last few years' bookings for dinning rooms and other hospitality facilities in the Palace of Westminster did just that.
You will find various bookings made by John Greenway and Lord Hunt of Wirral in the name of some of Incisive Media's leading brands, including Post Magazine, Investment Week and the Gold Standards Awards. We have never paid either of them to make these bookings, sponsor an event on our behalf or speak at the events and neither of them has ever asked for any payment.
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February 18, 2010

Will this be the Twitter election? UK political parties look for Obama lessons

Just how important is social media going to be in the forthcoming General Election campaign? After the huge excitement generated by the Obama campaign's use of social media during his successful campaign in 2008 all three main parties in the UK have been gearing up to exploit these new channels - and all three have proved very keen to talk about what they are doing.
Just this week there has been a debate at the Frontline Club and a session at the Search Engine Strategies London conference. I attended the latter as SES is part of the Incisive Media stable.
Speaking at the SES session were Mark Hanson from the Labour Party, Rishi Saha from the Conservatives and Mark Pack from Mandate Communications, who until recently worked for the Liberal Democrats.
There was a remarkable degree of consensus among the three of them and with the Frontline Club debate the previous evening, best summed up as cautious in terms of the claims being made for the likely impact of social media. However, the parties are putting alot of resources into it. Labour have four people dedicated to digital campaigning and the Conservatives nine. The Lib Dems predictably have a more limited national resource and have put the emphasis on local campaigning instead.
They all agreed that the biggest impact of the Obama campaign has been to get them a seat at the top table. Whereas before Obama party bosses might have been tempted to treat social media as a sideshow, now it is a central ingredient in their communications strategies.
Rishi Saha was by far the most bullish, promoting David Cameron and George Osborne as being web savvy and comfortable with new media, taking a big swipe at Gordon Brown's much-derided YouTube video at the height of the expenses scandal, drawing a stoney look from Mark Hanson but no response. The WebCameron project was hailed by Saha as an example of the ease with which the Tory leadership has embraced new media in contrast to Blair and Brown and even Hanson found himself acknowledging its success. The key tools for Labour so far have been Twitter which they like because of its immediacy and directness and also the blogsphere where they have over 100 key Labour supporting bloggers donating advertising space on their blogs.
The Tories have been quick to promote policy initiatives and reach out to potential supporters using new media in contrast to Labour where the emphasis seems to have been in communicating with its existing supporters more effectively. In this respect their new media strategies are in line with their overall approaches to the forthcoming election and their respective priorities. For Labour it is about maintaining its current support and enthusing it about the prospect of another Labour government while the Tories have to attract huge numbers of new supporters if they are to have any chance of winning the election.
The Liberal Democrats have focussed on a local strategy, particularly using Facebook, where the chance to build relationships with smaller groups of local electors appeals to them.
One feature on which they all agreed was the huge contrast with the American experience where social media's main influence was in fundraising with 99% of the money raised online going on TV advertising. In the UK, social media so far has been more about persuasion.
Whatever impact social media has in the UK election is likely to to be overshadowed by the new US-style leadership debates - this was certainly the feeling at the Frontline club. These are the key novelty and will grab alot of media and public attention. Social media will play a supporting role in this as the key commentators use it to form instant opinions on how the contestants have performed which will, in turn, shape public perceptions.
Back at SES, Mark Pack also said that we should expect the unexpected. There will almost certainly be a key 'cock-up' moment at some time during the campaign that will be caught on video and which will become huge on the internet - all the parties will be hoping that it isn't their leaders who become top ranked hits on You Tube for the wrong reasons.
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